Essa coisa de deal vs no deal me parece um pouco como um grupo de vítimas deliberando sobre se serão vítimas voluntárias de um short ou long con. Para não ferir o orgulho em admitir ter caído num golpe inicialmente, e se esquivar completamente de qualquer coisa, exceto embaraço.

Bien sûr

https://www.youtube.com/v/cCwGquoF9UE

Citar

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/hedge-funds-make-7bn-bet-against-pound-as-brexit-bites-a4216371.html

...
Bets against the currency stood at $7.6 billion as of last week, close to the previous week’s all-time high of $8.1 billion.
...
As sterling fell, CBI director general Carolyn Fairburn said she would be travelling all over the UK to hear from businesses about “their preparations for a no-deal Brexit and the impact on their business”. The leaked Yellowhammer documents suggest businesses are largely unprepared for no-deal due to a lack of certainty and “EU exit fatigue”.

Citar

https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-hedge-funds-currency-traders-no-deal-brexit-2019-7

...
O'Neill told the BBC Radio 4 World at One programme that UK government figures "deliberately promoting the no-deal Brexit risk" were allowing traders to benefit.

"I'm pretty sure that a lot of big foreign exchange and hedge fund type people are... probably looking at what's being said coming out the UK as almost close to a free lunch," O'Neill said.

"The world I was in a lot of them are saying thank goodness for Boris, he's giving us a chance to make some money."
...

Citar

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/09/12/1568281802000/No-deal-Brexit-is-not-a-hedge-fund-conspiracy/

...
Yesterday the Byline Times outlined some £4.6bn of aggregate short equity positions from hedge funds that, the site claimed, “directly or indirectly bankrolled Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign”, and thus a no deal Brexit.

The inference is that hedge funds have used their financial might to influence the outcome of Brexit via political donations and are now standing to benefit through short positions in UK companies.

The problem is, it doesn’t make any sense. Here are a few of the problems with the article:

• Hedge funds contain multitudes. Take Marshall Wace, which boasts £40bn of assets under management. It’s run by pro-Brexit Paul Marshall (cited in the article), and pro-Remain Ian Wace (not cited in the article).


• UK stocks often have little exposure to the UK economy. Take Cineworld, which according to the data Byline Times cited, has seen the biggest increase in short interest in the past month. But 75 per cent of its revenue was from the US in the first half of 2019, according to the company’s latest interim results.


• Equity outcomes are explicitly uncertain — what is a short position on a “no deal Brexit”? A short position on any company? A short position could also be a play on remain. For instance, a company might benefit from a stronger dollar, or less EU regulation.


• Hedge fund strategies are not simply running grand macro strategies on the fate of a nation. To mention Marshall Wace again, it runs a quantitative strategy called TOPS, which aggregates and makes decisions based on external investment research.


• The most-shorted companies have short theses which have nothing to do with Brexit, like Thomas Cook (over-leveraged) or Kier Group (over-leveraged).


• A fund might be short because of arbitrage opportunities, or to hedge a long position (which might contradict the notion it is betting on no deal).


• The biggest single donor to either campaign was Lord Sainsbury, who donated £4.2m to the Remain campaign (source: Transparency International). Of the £16.4m contributed by the top ten donors to either campaign, 58 per cent went to Leave and 42 per cent to Remain.


• As Louis Goddard from Global Witness pointed out on Twitter, there also fundamental problems with how the data has been presented.

...

11 x 0

Rainha enganada. Conservative arrasado. Labour rachado com Corbyn furioso. Lib Dem posicionado e organizado contra o Brexit mas sem recursos para campanha. É numa crise jamais vista no reino. O Brexit está virando um detalhe na bagunça.

Rainha enganada?

Eu duvido!

Aquela VDC (velha do cara...!) sabia muito bem o que estava fazendo.

[1:35]
I invite Boris Johnson, in the historic words, to consider his position and become the shortest serving PM there’s ever been.

Eu não duvido que os parlamentares e os membros da UE estão a ganhar propina para enrolarem ainda mais o BREXIT.